The problem of predictive analysis in assessing the risks and threats of digital transformation of processes in the education system of the Republic of Belarus

The article in its targeted focus by the author considers problematic aspects of studying issues related to the implementation of digital transformation processes in the field of education in the Republic of Belarus, taking into account the predictive analysis of the presented risks and threats arising before society of the emerging era of digitalization. In many ways, it is objectively and correctly implemented forecasting that is the reference position for making balanced decisions in determining the strategic directions for the development of education in its short and long term. Analysis of existing publications in this field in the Republic of Belarus allows us to conclude that there are insufficient in-depth and systemic studies that, in their interdisciplinary nature, would overcome the methodological inconsistency of the problem of predictive analytics in assessing the risks and threats associated with the processes of digital transformation in the educational sphere, including taking into account psychological and pedagogical problems. A comparative analysis of the studies of Belarusian scientists, the conceptual provisions of state programs in the field of digitalization of education, together with the concretization of the used conceptual and terminological apparatus, allowed the author to determine the necessary methodological grounds for scientific search. Within the framework of scientific reflection, when taking into account the theoretical and methodological approaches developed in psychological and pedagogical science, the author highlighted the foundations of the predictive analysis carried out based on a clear understanding of the leading trends in the development of modern education. The article highlights the determinants - the factors that determine the dynamics of the technologization of the educational sphere, the specifics of the integration of innovative information and communication technologies into the educational activities carried out by its subjects. The noted provisions, along with the definition of risks and threats to digital transformation of processes in the education system of the Republic of Belarus, made it possible to comprehend the conditions for their minimization and overcoming the imperatives of the proposed requirements for their implementation

1. Kontseptsiia tsifrovoi transformatsii protsessov v sisteme obrazovaniia Respubliki Belarus' na 2019–2025 gody: utv. Ministrom obrazovaniia Resp. Belarus' 15.03.2019 [Concept of digital transformation of processes in the education system of the Republic of Belarus for 2019–2025: approved. Minister of Education of the Republic Belarus 03/15/2019]. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1T0v7iQqQ9ZoxO2IIwR_OlhqZ3rjKVqY-/view (accessed: 26.02.2024) (in Russ.)

2. O Kontseptsii razvitiia sistemy obrazovaniia Respubliki Belarus' do 2030 goda : postanovlenie Soveta Ministrov Respubliki Belarus', 30 noiab. 2021 g., № 683 [On the Concept for the development of the education system of the Republic of Belarus until 2030: resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus, November 30. 2021, No. 683]. https://pravo.by/document/?guid=3871&p0=C22100683 (accessed: 26.02.2024) (in Russ.)

3. O Gosudarstvennoi programme «Tsifrovoe razvitie Belarusi» na 2021—2025 gody: postanovlenie Soveta Ministrov Resp. Belarus', 2 fevralia 2021 g., № 66 [On the State Program “Digital Development of Belarus” for 2021-2025: Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic. Belarus, February 2, 2021, No. 66]. https://pravo.by/document/?guid=3871&p0=C22100066 (accessed: 26.02.2024) (in Russ.)

4. Ablameiko S.V., Vorotnitskii Iu.I., Listopad N.I. (2014) Strategiia informatizatsii i informatsionnaia bezopasnost' sistemy obrazovaniia v usloviiakh razvitiia informatsionnogo obshchestva [Informatization strategy and information security of the education system in the context of the development of the information society] // Razvitie informatizatsii i gosudarstvennoi sistemy nauchno-tekhnicheskoi informatsii: RINTI–2014: materialy XIII mezhdunar. nauch. konf. Minsk. Pp. 12–17 (in Russ.)

5. Bas'ko V.V., Vorotnitskii Iu.I., Kurbatskii A.N., Listopad N.I. (2003) O nekotorykh voprosakh strategii informatizatsii obrazovaniia Respubliki Belarus' [On some issues of the strategy for informatization of education in the Republic of Belarus]. Informatizatsiia obrazovaniia. № 1, рp. 23–28 (in Russ.)

6. Dylian G.D., Ratobyl'skaia E.S., Tsvetkova M.S. (2005) Modeli upravleniia protsessami kompleksnoi informatizatsii obshchego srednego obrazovaniia [Models for managing processes of complex informatization of general secondary education]. Moskva: BINOM. 111 р. (in Russ.)

7. Bogush V.A., E.N. Shneiderov (2021) Tsifrovizatsiia obrazovaniia: problemy, vyzovy i perspektivy [Digitalization of education: problems, challenges and prospects]. Adukacyja i vyhavanne. № 1, рр. 14–21 (in Russ.)

8. Novitskii E.N. (2021) Tsifrovizatsiia v Respublike Belarus' v kontekste rasprostraneniia COVID–19 [Digitalization in the Republic of Belarus in the context of the spread of COVID–19] // Sotsial'noe znanie v sovremennom obshchestve: problemy, zakonomernosti, perspektivy : materialy II mezhdunar. nauch. konf. Minsk. Рр. 355-357 (in Russ.)

9. Titarenko L.G. (2022) Vliianie tsifrovizatsii na uchebno-vospitatel'nyi protsess: perspektivy i riski [The impact of digitalization on the educational process: prospects and risks]. Vyshjejshaja shkola. № 1, рр. 5–7 (in Russ.)

10. Zhuk O.L. (2020) Aktual'nye napravleniia razvitiia obrazovaniia i nauchno-pedagogicheskikh issledovanii v usloviiakh tsifrovoi transformatsii [Current directions for the development of education and scientific and pedagogical research in the context of digital transformation]. Pedagogika. № 3, рр. 5–14 (in Russ.)

11. Zubrilina I.V. (2023) Tsifrovizatsiia obrazovaniia v kontekste prioritetov Dorozhnoi karty po realizatsii TsUR v Respublike Belarus' [Digitalization of education in the context of the priorities of the Roadmap for the implementation of the SDGs in the Republic of Belarus]. Adukacyja i vyhavanne. № 8, рр. 11–19 (in Russ.)

12. Karpenko I.V. (2020) Formirovanie novoi obrazovatel'noi sredy [Formation of a new educational environment]. Nauka i innovatsii. № 7 (209), рр. 66–68 (in Russ.)

13. Unsovich A.N., Tolkach A.G. (2020) Povyshenie effektivnosti upravleniia v sisteme vysshego obrazovaniia i kachestva podgotovki spetsialistov v usloviiakh tsifrovoi transformatsii obrazovatel'nogo protsessa [Increasing the efficiency of management in the higher education system and the quality of training of specialists in the context of digital transformation of the educational process]. Vestnik BarGU. Seriia. «Pedagogicheskie nauki. Psikhologicheskie nauki. Filologicheskie nauki». № 8, рр. 46–55 (in Russ.)

14. Shevliakova-Borzenko I.L. Konvergentnye protsessy v obrazovanii: istoki, faktory, dinamika [Convergent processes in education: origins, factors, dynamics]. Universitetskii pedagogicheskii zhurnal. № 2, рр. 3–10 (in Russ.)

15. Lozitskii V.L. (2024) Tsifrovaia transformatsiia obrazovaniia: problemy, riski i perspektivy razvitiia [Digital transformation of education: problems, risks and development prospects]. Vestnik BarGU. Seriia: «Pedagogicheskie nauki. Psikhologicheskie nauki. Filologicheskie nauki». № 1, рр. 25–32 (in Russ.)

16. Dorozhnaia karta po dostizheniiu Tselei ustoichivogo razvitiia v Respublike Belarus' [Roadmap for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in the Republic of Belarus]. https://dashboards.sdgindex.org/profiles.belarus/ (accessed: 31.03.2024) (in Russ.)

17. Belarus: Sustainable Development. https://hlpf.un.org/sites/default/files/vnrs/2022/VNR%202022%20Belarus%20Report.pdf (accessed: 31.03.2024) (in Engl.)

18. Zhuk A.I. (2022) Dorozhnaia karta OUR 2030: na puti k dostizheniiu tselei ustoichivogo razvitiia [ESD 2030 Roadmap: Towards Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals] // Obrazovanie v interesakh budushchego: materialy mezhdunar. nauch.-prakt. konf. Minsk. Рр. 6-10 (in Russ.)

19. Baker D., Ellis L. (2021) Future directions in digital information: predictions, practice, participation. Cambridge, MA & Kidlington, UK, Chandos Publishing. 417 p. (in Engl.)

20. Castaneda L., Selwyn N. (2018) More than tools? Making sense of the ongoing digitizations of higher education // International Journal of Educational Technology in Higher Education. № 15. P. 1–10. DOI:10.1186/s41239-018-0109-y (in Engl.)

21. Ehlers U.-D. (2020) Future skills: the future of learning and higher education. Books on Demand. 336 p. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/344537368_Future_Skills_-_The_Future_of_Learning_and_Higher_Education (accessed: 31.03.2024) (in Engl.)

22. Facer K., Selwyn N. (2021) Digital technology and the futures of education – towards «non-stupid» optimism // University of Bristol. https:// https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/digital-technology-and-thefutures-of-education-towards-non-stupi (accessed: 31.03.2024) (in Engl.)

23. McCutcheon L.R.M., Alzghari S.K., Lee Y.R., Long W.G., Marquez R. (2017) Interprofessional education and distance education: A review and appraisal of the current literature // Currents in Pharmacy Teaching and Learning. Vol. 9. Is. 4. Pp. 729–736. DOI: 10.1016/j.cptl.2017.03.011 (in Engl.)

24. Leal Filho W., Raath S., Lazzarinic B., Vargas V.R., de Souza L., Anholon R., Quelhas O.L.G., Haddad R., Klavins M., Orlovic V.L. (2018) The role of transformation in learning and education for sustainability // Journal of Cleaner Production. Vol. 199. Pp. 286–295. DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.07.017 (in Engl.)

25. Williamson, B., Komljenovic, J., & Gulson, K. (Eds.). (2023). World Yearbook of Education 2024: Digitalisation of Education in the Era of Algorithms, Automation and Artificial Intelligence (1st ed.). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003359722 (in Engl.)

26. Razrabotka programmno-metodicheskogo obespecheniia respublikanskoi informatsionno-obrazovatel'noi sredy : otchet o nauchno-issledovatel'skoi rabote (zakliuchitel'nyi) [Development of software and methodological support for the republican information and educational environment: report on research work (final)]. https://elib.bsu.by/handle/123456789/236401 (accessed: 26.02.2024) (in Russ.)